THE VERDICT: GO 10/10 | The Season Just Peaked

298.

That's the number. Constitution. July 21. 21 anglers. 298 bluefin tuna on a 2-day trip -- 14.19 fish per angler. That is not a typo. It is not a fleet-wide total. It is one boat, one trip, returning to the dock with nearly 300 bluefin tuna. And it didn't even happen in isolation -- it happened in the middle of a week where Polaris Supreme returned with another 132 BFT (its second 132-BFT trip this month), Pacific Voyager came back with 114 BFT and 97 yellowtail on the same trip, and the San Diego -- a Coronado Islands day boat -- ran offshore and came home with 12 yellowfin tuna. The species composition of the San Diego fleet is shifting in real time. YFT are showing up on overnight boats at 15-32 fish per trip. Dorado stacking alongside every offshore species. The BFT school hasn't moved. The Full Moon arrives Tuesday July 29. Midday Overhead Majors both days this weekend. 9/10 conditions. There is no reason not to be on the water.

Weekend Score: 10/10 🟢

LAST WEEK’S CALL

Last Week's Call: Legend tops 100 bluefin tuna this trip.
Result: 83 BFT -- Legend returned July 19 with 83 bluefin tuna and 81 yellowtail on 24 anglers. Strong trip; 17 fish short of the threshold. Spirit of Adventure got 156 BFT in the same zone on July 18, the day before Legend returned. The school was there. Count fell to 83% of target.

Seven calls, one hit. The hit rate is still 14%. The streak is still mostly misses. But the pattern of misses is narrowing -- we're getting closer to the fish and losing on count precision, not on species selection or boat scheduling.

THE BIG STORY: CONSTITUTION, 298 BLUEFIN TUNA

Let's set the scene. Tuesday July 21. The Constitution comes back from a 2-day trip with 298 bluefin tuna on 21 anglers. That's 14.19 fish per angler. For context, last year's best single-trip BFT number in these waters was somewhere in the 100s. The record books -- whatever they are -- just got rewritten.

To understand how it happened, look at what the week before it looked like:

July 17 was another huge day: Islander (126 BFT), Grande (108 BFT), Tomahawk (112 BFT + 49 YT), New Lo-An (108 BFT + 10 YT + 10 YFT), Pacific Queen (112 BFT). Five boats, all cracking 100 BFT, on the same Thursday. The fleet was already finding extraordinary concentrations.

July 18: Spirit of Adventure returns with 156 BFT + 25 YT + 6 Dorado on 26 anglers. Pacific Voyager with 68 BFT + 70 YT. The offshore zone is stacked.

July 20: Polaris Supreme comes back from a 4-day with 132 BFT + 40 YT. Their second 132-BFT trip this month. Same school. It hasn't moved.

Then July 21: Constitution 298. Pacific Voyager 114 BFT + 97 YT on the same trip return. Pacifica 82 BFT + 50 YT. Highliner 77 BFT + 41 YT.

This isn't a random spike -- it's the BFT density that's been building since the New Moon (July 14) reaching its logical conclusion. The school or schools offshore of San Diego right now are the largest concentration of bluefin tuna these boats have found in years. And the Full Moon is still 8 days away from the July 12 peak. It just kept going.

One more thing happened this week that's easy to miss inside the BFT numbers: yellowfin tuna are here in force. The San Diego ran offshore on July 21 and came home with 12 YFT and 1 yellowtail -- not a single CI yellowtail on the trip. The Voyager ran full-day offshore and posted 14 YFT. Producer's overnight came back with 32 YFT and 34 dorado alongside just 4 yellowtail. Tradition: 16 YFT + 21 Dorado + 19 YT on an overnight. Lucky B's 3-angler charter got 15 YFT. The YFT are no longer a scattered sighting -- they're a separate, targeted fishery forming right now.

ZONE BREAKDOWN

Offshore BFT -- HISTORIC (5/5)
Constitution 298. That's the headline. Supporting cast for the week: Pacific Voyager 114 (3-day), Islander 126 (3.5-day), Polaris Supreme 132 (4-day), Tomahawk 112 (2-day), Grande 108 (2-day), Pacific Queen 112 (2-day), Spirit of Adventure 156 (3-day), Pacifica 82 (2-day), Highliner 77-82 (two separate trips). The BFT school is holding. The density is historic. Multi-day boats running to the zone are finding fish every time.

Offshore YFT / Dorado -- EMERGING (4/5 and building)
San Diego ran offshore July 21 for YFT instead of the islands. That's the signal. When a CI day-boat changes its behavior and goes offshore for a different species, the YFT bite has matured from "incidental" to "intentional." Producer's overnight (32 YFT + 34 Dorado + 4 YT) on July 20 was the best mixed-pelagic overnight trip of the season. Tradition went 16 YFT + 21 Dorado overnight July 19. The YFT and dorado zone is active and multiple format boats are finding it.

Coronado Islands / Near-Offshore YT -- REBUILDING (3/5)
The CI hasn't collapsed, but the big boats that were running it earlier in the month have mostly pivoted offshore for BFT/YFT/Dorado. What's left on the CI: Mission Belle 36 YT on 9 anglers (4.0 F/A, July 21), 20 YT on July 19, 16 YT on July 16. San Diego has been getting 7-32 YT at the islands when it runs there. The CI is a real fishery -- it's just not where the season is happening right now. Tomahawk ran a 1.5-day and came home with 58 YT + 17 BFT on July 19, which suggests the near-offshore zone produces both species in the right conditions.

La Jolla / Nearshore -- EXCEPTIONAL calico, solid mixed bag (4/5)
New Seaforth AM posted 38 yellowtail on a half-day AM July 18 -- that's unusual for a half-day format. The WSB bite made an appearance: Effishency posted 3 WSB on July 18 and 6 WSB on 2 anglers on July 19. New Seaforth AM had 3 WSB on July 20. The calico bass numbers are at a different level this summer: Dolphin PM 305 calico (July 21, 22 anglers), Premier PM 216 calico (July 21), New Seaforth Twilight 267 calico (July 19). These are the biggest calico counts we've logged.

PRIVATE BOAT INTEL

Midday Is the Window This Weekend

The Full Moon arrives Tuesday July 29 -- 6 days from now. The weekend falls right in the waxing gibbous run-up, with illumination at 82% Saturday and 88% Sunday. When the moon is this full and building, the gravitational peaks shift toward midday, and the overnight bite weakens as the bright moon disrupts surface bait schools.

Saturday Overhead Major: 10:22 AM - 12:22 PM PDT (peak 11:22 AM).
Sunday Overhead Major: 11:14 AM - 1:14 PM PDT (peak 12:14 PM).

For private boaters, this is actually favorable logistics. You don't need to leave at 2 AM and grind 50 nm in the dark. You can depart around 6-7 AM, run to the zone, and be set up and fishing at the beginning of the Major window. The late-morning peak means midday fishing -- prime visibility, full crew on deck, active conditions.

For the BFT that's been biting all month, note that the full-moon approach historically transitions the bite from surface/top-water (where dark-moon conditions produce the explosive dawn jig bite) toward subsurface marks and deep-water bait presentations. The boats getting 100+ BFT right now are mostly chunk-fishing bait at depth rather than running iron on the surface at first light. That pattern continues this weekend.

Moonrise Minor both days: 6:58-7:58 AM -- worth noting for boats launching at first light. The very first hour on the water falls in a Minor window. Build toward the Major.

For nearshore and CI private boaters: the Moonset Minor on Saturday (3:40-4:40 PM) and Sunday (4:30-5:30 PM) is the late-afternoon secondary window that typically produces yellows and calico. Plan your drift or anchor rotation to be actively fishing that window before the run home.

CONDITIONS

Forecast: Excellent. Sixteenth consecutive clean weekend.

Period

Wind

Seas

Swell Period

Score

Friday

Variable <10 kt

3-4 ft

15s

9/10 🟢

Fri Night

Variable <10 kt

3-4 ft

16s

9/10 🟢

Saturday

Variable <10 kt

3-4 ft

15s

9/10 🟢

Sat Night

Variable <10 kt

3-4 ft

15s

9/10 🟢

Sunday

Variable <10 kt

3-4 ft

14s

9/10 🟢

Sun Night

Variable <10 kt

3 ft

14s

9/10 🟢

Source: NOAA PZZ750, San Mateo Pt to Mexican Border, out 30nm.

Barometric Pressure: 29.890 inHg, stable (⚪). 3h change: +0.050 inHg, 12h change: -0.010 inHg. Slightly rising short-term, dead flat on the day. No signal -- and no suppression.

SST:

  • Coronado Islands: 65-67°F (YT-favorable, holding)

  • La Jolla / Nearshore: 63-65°F

  • Offshore / Buoy 46086: 67-69°F (BFT/YFT/Dorado zone -- warm edge holding)

WHY IT WORKS THIS WEEKEND

1. The school didn't move. Polaris Supreme returned July 20 with the same 132 BFT it got on July 12. Constitution got 298 on July 21. The BFT school that's been holding offshore of San Diego for the last two weeks is still there. Boats are finding it on every trip. It may be the most stable BFT concentration anyone here has seen in years.

2. Full Moon building -- midday windows both days. Saturday Overhead Major 10:22 AM, Sunday 11:14 AM. This is the late-morning/noon window that produces in the buildup to Full Moon. Fish have been feeding in the bright moon all week and will be on the chew at the midday peak.

3. YFT are in transition from incidental to intentional. The San Diego changed its behavior and went offshore for YFT on Tuesday. When a CI day boat does that, the signal has matured. Multi-day boats specifically targeting the YFT zone (Producer, Tradition, Aztec overnight) are posting 10-32 YFT per trip. A YFT trip this weekend is no longer speculative -- it's a defined fishery.

4. WSB showed up three straight days. Effishency 3 WSB (Jul 18), Effishency 6 WSB (Jul 19), New Seaforth 3 WSB (Jul 20). The La Jolla WSB window is active. With the Moonset Minor at 4:30-5:30 PM Sunday and the late-day sun angle on the kelp, the afternoon half-day and twilight formats are positioned for it again this weekend.

5. 9/10 conditions, baro stable, long-period swell (14-15s). The sea state is as comfortable as it gets offshore. 14-15s period on 3-4 ft seas means comfortable running even on smaller private boats going 50+ nm.

SOLUNAR TABLE

Weekend of July 25-26, 2026 -- San Diego

First Quarter Moon was Monday July 21 at 6:05 PM PDT. Full Moon arrives Tuesday July 29 at 9:35 PM PDT. The weekend falls squarely in the waxing gibbous phase -- 4 days before Full Moon. Illumination: 82% Saturday, 88% Sunday.

Day

Phase

Type

Window

Notes

Sat July 25

🌔 Waxing Gibbous

Moonrise

6:58 AM - 7:58 AM

First-light secondary

Sat July 25

🌔 Waxing Gibbous

Overhead

10:22 AM - 12:22 PM

MIDDAY -- primary window

Sat July 25

🌔 Waxing Gibbous

Moonset

3:40 PM - 4:40 PM

Afternoon nearshore

Sat July 25

🌔 Waxing Gibbous

Underfoot

10:48 PM - 12:48 AM

Overnight -- offshore BFT

Sun July 26

🌔 Waxing Gibbous

Moonrise

6:58 AM - 7:58 AM

First-light secondary

Sun July 26

🌔 Waxing Gibbous

Overhead

11:14 AM - 1:14 PM

MIDDAY -- primary window

Sun July 26

🌔 Waxing Gibbous

Moonset

4:30 PM - 5:30 PM

Afternoon nearshore

Sun July 26

🌔 Waxing Gibbous

Underfoot

11:39 PM - 1:39 AM

Overnight

The picks: Saturday 10:22 AM - 12:22 PM and Sunday 11:14 AM - 1:14 PM.

This is the sixth consecutive weekend with a different primary window -- New Moon: midday, First Quarter: dawn, Full Moon: midday, Waning Gibbous: afternoon, New Moon again: pre-dawn, now Waxing Gibbous: midday again. The pattern is: midday windows appear near New Moon and Full Moon; dawn/dusk windows appear near the quarter moons. We are building toward Full Moon (July 29) and the midday window is solidifying.

For BFT boats, the midday Overhead Major stacks with the feeding behavior shift that happens as the moon fattens -- less aggressive topwater dawn bite, more sustained midday and afternoon bite on bait at depth. The Constitution's 298 fish didn't all come at first light. They came across hours of sustained biting as a dense school fed under a bright waxing moon.

BOAT PICKS

#1 -- Constitution (2-3 Day -- Fisherman's Landing)

The obvious pick. 298 BFT on July 21. The boat knows exactly where the school is. A 2-day departing tonight puts them on the grounds Saturday morning, fishing through the midday Overhead Major with a fresh crew on a school they just came off. The Call is 200+ because 298 required an exceptional concentration; 200 is the bet that the school didn't scatter in 48 hours.

#2 -- Pacific Voyager (3 Day -- H&M Landing)

The mixed-bag premium pick. Pacific Voyager just returned July 21 with 114 BFT + 97 yellowtail on 19 anglers. That's two separate triple-digit species counts on a single trip -- a combination that almost never happens. A 3-day departing Thursday runs right through both weekend Overhead Majors. If you want the shot at both BFT and a YT count that rivals the Coronados' best days, the Voyager format is the play.

#3 -- New Seaforth AM (Seaforth)

The WSB and nearshore YT pick. Three straight days of WSB reports from the La Jolla fleet: 3, 6, 3 fish (Jul 18-20). New Seaforth AM hit 38 yellowtail on July 18 on a half-day format -- the best single AM-format YT day of the season. With the Saturday Moonset Minor at 3:40-4:40 PM and Sunday at 4:30-5:30 PM, the afternoon-into-twilight window is the WSB setup again. New Seaforth PM and Twilight format both in play for the evening window.

THE DATA ANGLE

What 298 Bluefin Tells the Model

Seven calls. One hit (Polaris Supreme 132 on July 17). The streak is 1-for-7 overall, 1-for-3 on BFT calls (Polaris , Legend , now Constitution).

But the BFT miss log is getting interesting. Issue #15: Polaris Supreme didn't run on the right day -- scheduling risk. Issue #18: Legend hit 83% of threshold -- precision risk. These are different failure modes than the CI yellowtail failures (Issues #13, #14, #16), which were wrong-fishery or wrong-trend calls.

The BFT calls are now failing because of count precision rather than species or boat selection. That's progress -- it means the model has learned to identify the right fishery and the right boat type. The remaining failure mode is calibrating the threshold: is 100 the right floor when the fleet median is 60-80 BFT per trip, or should the threshold be set to median + 20%?

The 298 is also an outlier event that the model needs to handle carefully. One boat with one exceptional concentration doesn't validate a 298 baseline. But it does suggest the upper range of what's possible when the conditions stack -- Full Moon building, stable school, midday windows, baro stable. If we can identify those four conditions aligning in advance, the Call can shift the threshold upward accordingly.

The Predictions Log now has 7 rows of ground truth. The BFT sub-model is converging faster than the CI sub-model. By Issue #25 we'll have enough BFT data to start testing threshold calibration -- does 100 vs. 120 vs. 150 produce better hit rates when the school density is confirmed?

FLEET COUNTS

July 16 -- July 21, 2026 -- Notable Trips

BLUEFIN TUNA -- THE WEEK OF RECORDS

  • Jul 21 -- Constitution: 298 BFT / 21 ang (14.19 F/A) -- 2 Day -- 2026 season record ⭐⭐⭐

  • Jul 18 -- Spirit of Adventure: 156 BFT + 25 YT + 6 Dorado / 26 ang -- 3 Day ⭐⭐

  • Jul 17 -- Islander: 126 BFT + 14 YT / 21 ang -- 3.5 Day

  • Jul 17 -- Pacific Queen: 112 BFT + 2 YT / 28 ang -- 2 Day

  • Jul 17 -- Tomahawk: 112 BFT + 49 YT / 28 ang -- 2 Day

  • Jul 17 -- Grande: 108 BFT + 2 YFT / 27 ang -- 2 Day

  • Jul 17 -- New Lo-An: 108 BFT + 10 YT + 10 YFT / 18 ang -- 3 Day

  • Jul 21 -- Pacific Voyager: 114 BFT + 97 YT / 19 ang -- 3 Day ⭐⭐

  • Jul 20 -- Polaris Supreme: 132 BFT + 40 YT / 22 ang -- 4 Day (2nd 132-BFT trip this month) ⭐⭐

  • Jul 21 -- Pacifica: 82 BFT + 50 YT / 26 ang -- 2 Day

  • Jul 21 -- Highliner: 77 BFT + 41 YT / 24 ang -- 2 Day

  • Jul 19 -- Highliner: 82 BFT + 77 YT / 23 ang -- 2 Day

  • Jul 19 -- Aztec: 68 BFT + 7 YT + 5 YFT / 17 ang -- 2 Day

  • Jul 18 -- Pacific Voyager: 68 BFT + 70 YT + 7 YFT / 17 ang -- 2 Day ⭐

  • Jul 19 -- Legend: 83 BFT + 81 YT / 24 ang -- 3 Day

  • Jul 17 -- Voyager: 52 BFT + 45 YT / 13 ang -- 2 Day

  • Jul 16 -- Polaris Supreme: 96 BFT + 103 YT / 24 ang -- 2 Day ⭐⭐

  • Jul 20 -- Ocean Odyssey: 75 BFT + 32 YT -- 2.5 Day ⭐

  • Jul 19 -- Tribute: 79 BFT + 1 YFT / 20 ang -- 3 Day

  • Jul 17 -- Cortez: 55 BFT + 15 YT / 15 ang -- 2.5 Day

  • Jul 20 -- Top Gun 80: 63 BFT + 22 YT + 2 YFT / 25 ang -- 3 Day

YELLOWFIN TUNA -- THE EMERGING FISHERY

  • Jul 20 -- Producer: 32 YFT + 34 Dorado + 4 YT / 25 ang -- Overnight ⭐⭐

  • Jul 21 -- San Diego: 12 YFT / 34 ang -- Full Day Offshore ⭐ (CI boat ran offshore for YFT)

  • Jul 21 -- Voyager: 14 YFT + 1 YT / 13 ang -- Full Day Offshore ⭐

  • Jul 19 -- Tradition: 16 YFT + 21 Dorado + 19 YT / 30 ang -- Overnight ⭐⭐

  • Jul 20 -- Lucky B: 15 YFT + 2 Dorado + 1 YT / 3 ang -- Full Day Offshore ⭐

  • Jul 20 -- Aztec: 10 YFT + 15 YT + 10 Dorado / 27 ang -- Overnight

  • Jul 17 -- New Lo-An: 10 YFT + 108 BFT + 10 YT / 18 ang -- 3 Day

  • Jul 21 -- Grande: 7 YFT + 3 YT + 3 Dorado / 15 ang -- Full Day

POLARIS SUPREME -- BOAT OF THE MONTH

  • Jul 12 -- 132 BFT / 22 ang -- 3 Day

  • Jul 14 -- 30 BFT / 23 ang -- 2 Day (mid-week)

  • Jul 16 -- 96 BFT + 103 YT / 24 ang -- 2 Day

  • Jul 20 -- 132 BFT + 40 YT / 22 ang -- 4 Day
    Four trips in 8 days, every trip producing. The crew is finding the school every single time.

WHITE SEABASS -- THREE-DAY WINDOW

  • Jul 19 -- Effishency: 6 WSB / 2 ang -- 3/4 Day ⭐⭐ (3.0 F/A on a 2-person trip)

  • Jul 18 -- Effishency: 3 WSB / 5 ang -- 3/4 Day ⭐

  • Jul 20 -- New Seaforth AM: 3 WSB + 8 YT / 51 ang -- 1/2 Day AM ⭐

  • Jul 17 -- Premier Twilight: 1 WSB / 33 ang

  • Jul 19 -- Premier AM: 1 WSB / 54 ang

CORONADO ISLANDS YT + NEAR-OFFSHORE

  • Jul 21 -- Mission Belle: 36 YT / 9 ang (4.00 F/A) -- Full Day CI

  • Jul 19 -- San Diego: 32 YT / 34 ang -- Full Day CI

  • Jul 19 -- Tomahawk: 58 YT + 17 BFT / 23 ang -- 1.5 Day

  • Jul 16 -- Polaris Supreme: 103 YT + 96 BFT / 24 ang -- 2 Day ⭐⭐

  • Jul 19 -- Highliner: 77 YT + 82 BFT / 23 ang -- 2 Day

  • Jul 19 -- Mission Belle: 20 YT / 15 ang -- Full Day CI

  • Jul 21 -- Apollo: 38 YT + 2 BFT / 15 ang -- 1.5 Day

NEARSHORE / CALICO STANDOUTS

  • Jul 21 -- Dolphin PM: 305 Calico / 22 ang -- 1/2 Day PM ⭐⭐

  • Jul 19 -- New Seaforth Twilight: 267 Calico / 55 ang -- 1/2 Day Twilight ⭐

  • Jul 21 -- Premier PM: 216 Calico + 29 SB / 29 ang -- 1/2 Day PM ⭐

  • Jul 18 -- New Seaforth AM: 38 YT + 56 Barracuda / 51 ang -- 1/2 Day AM ⭐ (38 YT on a half-day AM is unusual)

  • Jul 17 -- Malihini: 355 Calico + 31 YT / 34 ang -- 3/4 Day ⭐⭐ (355 calico bass)

  • Jul 17 -- Vendetta 2: 200 Calico + 98 Sand Bass / 25 ang -- Full Day

Week Summary (July 16-21)

  • Bluefin Tuna: 2,000+ fleet-wide (conservatively). Constitution 298 is the record. Multiple boats posting 100+ per trip throughout the week.

  • Yellowtail (offshore multi-day): 800+ -- Pacific Voyager 97, Polaris Supreme 103 and 40, Highliner 77 and 41 across two trips.

  • Yellowtail (CI day trips): 150 -- Mission Belle 36, San Diego 32 on peak days. Inconsistent but present.

  • Yellowfin Tuna: 120+ logged -- Building from scattered to a definable fishery in a single week.

  • Dorado: 200+ -- Consistent across overnight and multi-day boats all week.

  • White Seabass: 14 logged -- Three-day concentration July 18-20. Effishency 6 WSB on 2 anglers is the standout.

  • Calico Bass: 3,000+ fleet-wide -- Malihini 355, Dolphin PM 305, New Seaforth Twilight 267. Historic nearshore calico counts continuing.

🎯 THE CALL

Constitution tops 200 bluefin tuna this trip.
They just returned 298. The school is in the same zone. Full Moon arrives Tuesday and the midday Overhead Majors are building to the peak. If they departed today or tomorrow, they're on the grounds through Saturday's 10:22 AM window. 200 is the bet the school didn't scatter in 48 hours -- 298 proves the ceiling exists.

The Bite Index publishes every Thursday. Built on marine weather data, offshore buoy readings, fleet fish counts, and our own in-depth fishing data analysis.

Recommended for you

View all
caret-right