
THE VERDICT: GO ✅ 8/10 | The Coronados Are Back
The recovery we called in Issue #15 arrived -- just not in time for the weekend. San Diego posted 52 yellowtail at the Coronados on Sunday June 28, Mission Belle followed with 48 on Monday, and the Islands have been producing steady numbers through midweek. The Call on Polaris Supreme missed by one day: they didn't run Saturday, they returned Sunday with 91 bluefin -- the highest single-boat BFT count of the 2026 season. Offshore the BFT school hasn't moved, and this week's fish are getting bigger: 160 lbs, 195 lbs, 200 lbs. This weekend is 4th of July, boats will be full, weather is 9/10. The one thing that's different from the last three weekends: the solunar windows shift to late afternoon. Underfoot Major fires 4:37 PM Saturday and 5:20 PM Sunday. Stay late. The best bite window of the day is the last two hours.
Weekend Score: 8/10 🟢
LAST WEEK’S CALL
Last Week's Call: Polaris Supreme returns with 50+ bluefin on Saturday.
❌ Result: 0 BFT on Saturday June 27 -- the Polaris Supreme did not run. They returned Sunday with 91 bluefin instead. Off by one day; the school was there.
THE BIG STORY: 91 BLUEFIN AND THE RECOVERY
Two things happened this week that deserve equal billing.
The Polaris Supreme went and got 91 bluefin tuna on Sunday June 28. That's the highest single-boat BFT return of the 2026 season, by a wide margin. 91 fish on 24 anglers -- 3.79 fish per angler on a 3-day trip targeting tuna. The school that Polaris Supreme has been finding all month (52 BFT June 20, 54 BFT June 22, 91 BFT June 28) is not scattered. It's a holding school and multiple boats are finding it every run.
Meanwhile, the fish getting caught are getting bigger. Pacific Queen returned June 30 with BFT up to 160 lbs. Pacific Dawn came in July 1 with 17 bluefin up to 195 lbs on 5 anglers. New Lo-An returned July 1 with 10 BFT up to 200 lbs. These are not the same fish as the schoolie BFT that dominated April and May. The school has grown up -- or a different, larger school has arrived.
The Coronados bounced back. The collapse we documented over the last two issues resolved in 10 days, exactly as the historical bounce-back window suggested (3-10 days). San Diego went from 0 yellowtail on June 23 to 52 yellowtail at the Coronados on June 28 -- a full reset in 5 days. Mission Belle followed with 48 YT on 16 anglers (3.0 F/A) on June 29, Full Moon Monday. The CI is not back to the triple-digit days of June 8-10, but the trajectory is right and the timing into 4th of July weekend is good.
And one more: New Seaforth PM posted 8 white seabass on June 28 -- the Sunset moonrise-at-sunset overlap we flagged in Issue #15 produced exactly as described.
ZONE BREAKDOWN
Offshore BFT -- EXCEPTIONAL (5/5)
Polaris Supreme 91 BFT June 28 is the number. Add Pacific Voyager 14 BFT, Spirit of Adventure 15 BFT, Pacific Queen 3 BFT on the same Sunday and you're looking at 129 BFT in a single day. Through midweek the big fish kept coming: Pacific Queen 11 BFT up to 160 lbs, Pacific Voyager 12 BFT up to 120 lbs (June 30), Pacific Dawn 17 BFT up to 195 lbs, New Lo-An 10 BFT up to 200 lbs (July 1). The BFT school is holding and the fish are growing.
Coronado Islands -- RECOVERING (3/5)
The bounce-back is real but not yet back to peak form. San Diego: 52 YT June 28, 27 June 29, 18 June 30, 10 July 1 -- the numbers are declining off the initial bounce. Mission Belle 48 June 29 was the high-water mark of the recovery. Grande has been steady at 14-29 YT. The CI is producing; it's just not yet back to the 80-100+ days from earlier in June. The 4th of July weekend with full boats and the afternoon Underfoot Major window is the setup for a bigger number.
La Jolla / Nearshore -- GOOD (4/5)
New Seaforth PM posted 8 WSB on June 28 -- best single-trip WSB count in two weeks. New Seaforth Twilight had 2 more WSB on June 29. Dolphin PM ran 26 barracuda on June 29 alongside 52 calico and 3 halibut -- the nearshore mixed bag is as strong as it's been all season. Calico bass counts across the half-day fleet are exceptional (New Seaforth PM regularly posting 50-87 calico). Voyager came in June 30 with 55 YT on 11 anglers (5.0 F/A) on a 1.5-day -- the nearshore and short-trip YT bite is quietly running when the conditions line up.
Sand Bass -- STILL RUNNING (ongoing)
The sand bass replacement event that defined last week hasn't fully cleared. Sea Watch, Dolphin, Premier, New Seaforth, and Point Loma boats are still posting 20-140 sand bass on trips through the week. The CI YT bounce has pulled some attention back to the islands, but the sand bass are still a significant part of the nearshore picture.
PRIVATE BOAT INTEL
The Afternoon Window -- Don't Leave Early
Every weekend since the New Moon (June 14) has had a different timing story. Issue #13: midday windows. Issue #14: dawn windows. Issue #15: midday windows again (Full Moon). This weekend: the Underfoot Major shifts to late afternoon -- 4:37 PM Saturday and 5:20 PM Sunday.
This is the waning gibbous pattern. The moon rises well after midnight, transits overhead in the pre-dawn hours, and reaches its underfoot maximum in the late afternoon. For private boaters on a full-day run to the Coronados, you're building toward the prime window as the day goes on. The worst thing you can do this weekend is leave early.
Plan for it: have live bait in the tank, be set up on the best mark you found during the morning, and be actively fishing from 3 PM through 6 PM. The Underfoot Major window is 3:37-5:37 PM Saturday and 4:20-6:20 PM Sunday. That's also when the sun angle drops and late-afternoon bait schools come up -- the solunar window and the natural feeding window are stacking.
For overnight boats targeting BFT: the Overhead Major is in the pre-dawn hours -- 3:16-5:16 AM Saturday and 3:59-5:59 AM Sunday. Multi-day boats arriving at the tuna grounds in the dark have the best BFT window of the weekend at first light. The school that produced 91 fish on Sunday is still out there.
Holiday weekend note: 4th of July brings extra boat traffic, especially Saturday. Give yourself extra time at the dock and expect the launch ramp to be busier than usual. Sunrise Saturday is approximately 5:53 AM -- plan your departure accordingly if you're running to the islands.
CONDITIONS
Forecast: Excellent all weekend. Fifteen consecutive clean weekends.
Period | Wind | Seas | Swell Period | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Thursday | Variable <10 kt | 3-4 ft | 15s | 9/10 🟢 |
Friday | Variable <10 kt | 3-4 ft | 15s | 9/10 🟢 |
Saturday | Variable <10 kt | 3-4 ft | 14s | 9/10 🟢 |
Sunday | Variable <10 kt | 3-4 ft | 14s | 9/10 🟢 |
Monday | Variable <10 kt | 3 ft | 14s | 9/10 🟢 |
Source: NOAA PZZ750, San Mateo Pt to Mexican Border, out 30nm.
Barometric Pressure: Stable at 30.000 inHg. No signal.
SST:
Coronado Islands: 65-67°F (recovering into yellowtail band)
La Jolla / Nearshore: 63-65°F
Offshore / Buoy 46086: 65-67°F (BFT-favorable; school confirmed holding)
WHY IT WORKS THIS WEEKEND
1. The Coronados are coming back and 4th of July boats run full. The CI recovery trajectory -- 0 YT June 23 to 52 YT June 28 to steady production since -- points toward a good holiday weekend. Full boats at the Coronados with the fish turned back on is a straightforward recipe.
2. Late afternoon Underfoot Major on both days. 4:37 PM Saturday. 5:20 PM Sunday. The gravitational pull peaks as the sun drops and bait activity naturally increases. For CI full-day boats, the afternoon window is perfectly timed for the return-trip bite. For private boaters, it's the stay-late signal.
3. BFT school is confirmed holding. 91 BFT Sunday, 23 BFT Monday, 38 BFT Tuesday. Three consecutive days of multi-day boats finding the same school. The Overhead Major fires at 3:16-5:16 AM Saturday -- overnight boats hitting the grounds before first light are in the best window.
4. WSB bite is live. 8 WSB on June 28, 2 more on June 29, scattered fish through midweek. The afternoon-into-evening window (Underfoot Major plus natural sunset feeding) is prime WSB timing for the half-day and twilight trips.
5. 4th of July weekend energy. This is the biggest sport fishing weekend of the summer. Anglers who've been watching reports all month show up this weekend. That means full boats, more data, and typically strong effort across all landings.
SOLUNAR TABLE
Weekend of July 4-5, 2026 -- San Diego
Last Quarter Moon arrives Tuesday July 7 at 12:28 PM PDT. Saturday 80% illumination (waning) / Sunday 71% illumination (waning).
Day | Phase | Type | Window | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sat July 4 | 🌖 Waning Gibbous | Overhead | 3:16 AM - 5:16 AM | Pre-dawn BFT window |
Sat July 4 | 🌖 Waning Gibbous | Moonset | 9:02 AM - 11:02 AM | Mid-morning |
Sat July 4 | 🌖 Waning Gibbous | Underfoot | 3:37 PM - 5:37 PM | Afternoon -- peak at 4:37 PM |
Sat July 4 | 🌖 Waning Gibbous | Moonrise | 10:04 PM - 12:04 AM | Overnight |
Sun July 5 | 🌖 Waning Gibbous | Overhead | 3:59 AM - 5:59 AM | Pre-dawn BFT window |
Sun July 5 | 🌖 Waning Gibbous | Moonset | 10:01 AM - 12:01 PM | Late morning |
Sun July 5 | 🌖 Waning Gibbous | Underfoot | 4:20 PM - 6:20 PM | Afternoon -- peak at 5:20 PM |
Sun July 5 | 🌖 Waning Gibbous | Moonrise | 10:31 PM - 12:31 AM | Overnight |
The picks: Saturday 3:37-5:37 PM and Sunday 4:20-6:20 PM.
This is the fourth consecutive weekend with a completely different window timing. New Moon: midday. First Quarter: dawn. Full Moon: midday. Now waning gibbous: afternoon. The pattern is a direct function of the moon's position relative to the sun -- and understanding it is exactly the kind of edge the app will eventually deliver automatically.
The Moonset Minor (9:02-11:02 AM Saturday, 10:01 AM-12:01 PM Sunday) is a secondary mid-morning window worth noting -- particularly for boats that launch early and are on the grounds by 9 AM. Don't overlook the morning entirely, but plan your hardest fishing for the afternoon.
BOAT PICKS
#1 -- San Diego (Full Day Coronado Islands -- Seaforth)
The CI call. The bounce-back is established and the trajectory into 4th of July is positive. The afternoon Underfoot Major (3:37-5:37 PM) hits right when a full-day CI boat is making its last drift before running in. If the San Diego is back at the Coronados (they ran offshore June 27, CI June 28-29), this is the window to be on the grounds hard.
#2 -- Polaris Supreme (3 Day -- Seaforth)
The BFT call. 91 BFT on June 28, school confirmed. Pre-dawn Overhead Major at 3:16-5:16 AM Saturday is the window the multi-day fleet has been fishing. A 3-day departing Thursday puts them on the grounds overnight for exactly that window. If you want the shot at 50+ bluefin, this remains the boat to be on.
#3 -- New Seaforth Twilight (Seaforth)
The afternoon/evening window pick. The Twilight format runs right into the Underfoot Major window -- you're on the water fishing from roughly 4 PM through 7 PM, which overlaps perfectly with the 4:37 PM Saturday peak. New Seaforth PM got 8 WSB on June 28 in the sunset overlap window and 2 more on June 29. The calico bass bite is outstanding. WSB, calico, and bonito are all in play.
THE DATA ANGLE
The Call Keeps Teaching
Four Calls logged. One hit (it hasn't). Four misses, each for a different reason.
Issue #13: Called CI yellowtail, fish went offshore for BFT instead. Wrong fishery.
Issue #14: Called CI yellowtail during a thermal collapse that started the day after publish. Wrong timing.
Issue #15: Called Polaris Supreme BFT on Saturday. They ran Sunday instead. Wrong day.
Issue #16: Back to CI yellowtail with the recovery confirmed and the afternoon window in our favor.
The pattern in the misses is useful data. Three of the four misses involve CI yellowtail prediction failures driven by conditions that aren't visible in the solunar data alone -- thermal shifts, boat scheduling, species-specific responses to lunar phases. The single offshore BFT call (Issue #15) was right on the species, right on the boat, and off by 24 hours.
What this tells us about model architecture: CI yellowtail predictions need a thermal/SST gate -- if Buoy 46086 SST is shifting rapidly, the CI prediction confidence should drop. Offshore BFT predictions need a boat-availability check -- if the target boat isn't on the schedule, the prediction should be withheld or reassigned.
Neither of those inputs is in the model yet. They're going in next.
The Predictions Log now has four rows of training data. At 10 we start pattern analysis. At 20 we start model testing. The misses are the most valuable entries.
FLEET COUNTS
June 25 -- July 1, 2026 -- Notable Trips
BLUEFIN TUNA
Jun 28 -- Polaris Supreme: 91 BFT / 24 ang (3.79 F/A) -- 3 Day -- 2026 season high ⭐
Jun 25 -- Tomahawk: 26 BFT (up to 140 lbs) / 25 ang -- 2 Day
Jul 1 -- Pacific Dawn: 17 BFT (up to 195 lbs) / 5 ang -- 2.5 Day ⭐
Jun 28 -- Spirit of Adventure: 15 BFT / 25 ang -- 3 Day
Jun 28 -- Pacific Voyager: 14 BFT (up to 100 lbs) / 17 ang -- 3 Day
Jul 1 -- New Lo-An: 10 BFT (up to 200 lbs) / 15 ang -- 3 Day ⭐
Jun 30 -- Pacific Voyager: 12 BFT (up to 120 lbs) / 18 ang -- 2 Day
Jun 30 -- Pacific Queen: 11 BFT (up to 160 lbs) / 23 ang -- 3 Day
Jun 28 -- Legend: 5 BFT / 24 ang -- 2 Day
Jun 28 -- Apollo: 1 BFT / 18 ang -- 2 Day
Jun 25 -- Spirit of Adventure: 11 BFT / 17 ang -- 3 Day
Jun 26 -- Old Glory: 10 BFT (up to 120 lbs) / 10 ang -- 1.5 Day
MULTI-DAY YELLOWTAIL
Jun 28 -- Pacific Queen: 63 YT / 17 ang -- 2 Day ⭐
Jun 30 -- Voyager: 55 YT / 11 ang (5.00 F/A) -- 1.5 Day ⭐
Jun 28 -- Vendetta 2: 30 YT / 13 ang -- 2 Day
Jun 25 -- Pacific Voyager: 53 YT / 16 ang -- 2 Day
Jun 26 -- Producer: 36 YT / 28 ang -- Overnight
Jun 30 -- Pacific Queen: 38 YT / 23 ang -- 3 Day (+ 11 BFT)
Jun 28 -- Legend: 38 YT / 24 ang -- 2 Day (+ 5 BFT)
Jun 26 -- Pacific Queen: 27 YT / 28 ang -- 2 Day
Jun 28 -- Pacific Voyager: 27 YT / 17 ang -- 3 Day
CORONADOS YELLOWTAIL -- THE BOUNCE-BACK
Jun 28 -- San Diego: 52 YT / 37 ang -- Full Day CI ⭐
Jun 29 -- Mission Belle: 48 YT / 16 ang (3.00 F/A) -- Full Day CI ⭐
Jun 29 -- Grande: 29 YT / 19 ang -- Full Day CI
Jun 27 -- Grande: 27 YT / 36 ang -- Full Day CI
Jun 29 -- San Diego: 27 YT / 32 ang -- Full Day CI
Jun 28 -- Mission Belle: 14 YT / 16 ang -- Full Day CI
Jun 30 -- San Diego: 18 YT / 34 ang -- Full Day CI
Jun 26 -- San Diego: 18 YT / 35 ang -- Full Day CI (first sign of recovery)
Jul 1 -- Grande: 14 YT / 17 ang -- Full Day CI
Jul 1 -- San Diego: 10 YT / 35 ang -- Full Day CI
WHITE SEABASS
Jun 28 -- New Seaforth PM: 8 WSB / 53 ang -- 1/2 Day PM ⭐
Jun 29 -- New Seaforth Twilight: 2 WSB (+ 6 released) / 36 ang -- 1/2 Day Twilight
Jun 30 -- Dolphin AM: 1 WSB / 25 ang -- 1/2 Day AM
Jun 30 -- Daily Double AM: 1 WSB / 17 ang -- 1/2 Day AM
Jun 27 -- New Seaforth Twilight: 1 WSB / 48 ang -- 1/2 Day Twilight
Jun 28 -- New Seaforth AM: 1 WSB / 52 ang -- 1/2 Day AM
NEARSHORE MIXED BAG
Jun 29 -- Dolphin PM: 26 Barracuda + 3 Halibut + 52 Calico / 22 ang -- 1/2 Day PM ⭐
Jun 25 -- Grande: 80 Barracuda + 4 YT / 23 ang -- Full Day CI (barracuda standout)
Jun 30 -- New Seaforth PM: 53 Calico / 42 ang -- 1/2 Day PM
Jun 28 -- New Seaforth Twilight: 30 Calico + 1 WSB / 52 ang -- 1/2 Day Twilight
Week Totals (June 25 -- July 1)
Bluefin Tuna: ~242 fleet-wide -- Polaris Supreme 91 is the season-high single-boat return; multiple 120-200 lb fish through the week
Yellowtail (Offshore): ~500+ fleet-wide -- Pacific Queen, Pacific Voyager, Voyager all posting 50+ on multi-day trips
Yellowtail (CI): ~200 -- collapsed early week, sharp recovery June 28-29, holding modestly through July 1
White Seabass: ~15 -- New Seaforth PM 8 WSB June 28 is standout; scattered fish every day
Dorado: ~5 scattered -- Liberty, Tribute, Pacific Voyager
Barracuda: Excellent -- Dolphin PM 26 June 29; Grande 80 at CI June 25
Sand Bass: Still running strong across nearshore and half-day boats
🎯 THE CALL
San Diego tops 50 yellowtail on Saturday.
The Coronados bounce-back is confirmed. Afternoon Underfoot Major fires 3:37-5:37 PM -- full-day CI boats are still on the grounds at the prime window. 4th of July boats run full. We know what the fish do when conditions are right; this is the setup.
The Bite Index publishes every Thursday. Built on marine weather data, offshore buoy readings, fleet fish counts, and our own in-depth fishing data analysis.