
THE VERDICT: GO ✅ 8/10 | The Recovery is On, and the YFT Are Back
The yellowtail recovery started exactly when the pattern said it would. Full Moon hit Sunday May 31. The San Diego was back at the Coronados Monday June 1 with 25 yellowtail on 15 anglers -- 1.67 fish per angler, the first strong Coronados number since the water cooled. Buoy 46086 bounced from 63.5°F back to 66.4°F in one week. The thermal recovery and the fish recovery happened on the same timeline.
That's one story. Here's the bigger one.
The Polaris Supreme came back Wednesday with 38 yellowfin tuna and 70 skipjack. Yellowfin showed early this year -- Polaris Supreme had a 160-fish YFT day on April 13 -- then went quiet through the peak BFT weeks of May. Wednesday's trip is the return of YFT after a three-week absence, and it showed up alongside skipjack, which signals the warm-water pocket has pushed back into range. The offshore game just shifted species again.
And quietly, while attention was on the YT collapse and BFT numbers, the white seabass bite developed into something real. New Seaforth Twilight posted 13 WSB on May 28 -- the biggest single-trip WSB count of the season. The WSB have been showing up on half-day twilight trips at Seaforth through the week in numbers that are no longer incidental.
Conditions are 9/10 all weekend. Eleven consecutive clean weekends. The solunar windows hit at dawn both days -- the overhead major peaks at 5:34 AM Saturday and 6:17 AM Sunday, landing directly on first light. The setup is as clean as it gets.
Weekend Score: 8/10 🟢
THE BIG STORY: THE YFT ARE BACK
Polaris Supreme came back Wednesday with 38 yellowfin tuna, 70 skipjack, and 8 yellowtail for 24 anglers.
Yellowfin showed up early this season -- Polaris Supreme returned April 13 from a 3-day trip with 160 YFT on 24 anglers, the kind of number that doesn't happen until midsummer in a typical year. Then the BFT bite exploded in May, the YFT went quiet, and for three weeks the offshore story was entirely about bluefin. Wednesday's trip signals the return: warm water is back in range and the YFT moved with it.
Yellowfin tuna are not bluefin tuna. They don't school in the same structure, they don't respond to the same tactics, and they run in warmer water -- typically 68°F and above, compared to the 64-67°F band that held the BFT all spring. When YFT show up alongside skipjack, it usually means a warm-water mass has pushed into the zone with surface temperatures above the BFT thermal window. The Polaris Supreme found that water Wednesday. It may or may not be there this weekend depending on how the currents shifted -- but the boat knows where to look.
What this means practically: the offshore zone now potentially holds both BFT and YFT in different water. Finding the right temperature break -- and knowing which side of it you're on -- matters more than it did a week ago. YFT will show on birds, floating debris, and color changes at the warm edge. BFT will be deeper in the structure or along the cooler side of the break.
ZONE BREAKDOWN
Offshore Mexico -- GOOD (4/5)
The YFT arrival is the headline, but the underlying BFT numbers moderated significantly this week compared to the peak weeks of mid-May. Fewer 100+ BFT trips in the data. The Full Moon disruption, zone pressure, and possible thermal shift all contributed. Polaris Supreme's YFT/skipjack trip Wednesday is the clearest signal of what the offshore zone looks like right now: warm water, mixed species, active surface conditions. The boat that finds the right thermal patch this weekend is the boat to be on.
Coronado Islands -- FAIR to GOOD (3/5)
Recovery underway but not complete. San Diego posted 25 YT on 15 anglers on June 1 -- the first strong Coronados number since the May 22-25 collapse. June 3 showed 9 YT on 24 anglers. The numbers are still below the May 14-20 peak (35-95/day), but the direction is right and the water is back. The full recovery into pre-correction levels typically follows the New Moon -- which is June 14. This weekend is early in the rebuild. Expect moderate YT numbers with calico and rockfish in the mix.
La Jolla / Nearshore -- HOT (5/5)
The white seabass bite is here. New Seaforth Twilight posted 13 WSB on May 28. Effishency (private/6-pack) came back June 2 with 5 WSB on 4 anglers. Sea Watch has been logging WSB sporadically across multiple days. The calico and barracuda numbers remain very strong -- Premier PM posted 261 calico on 37 anglers Wednesday, Southern Cal has been logging 165-185 calico on the half-day. This is the most consistently productive fishery running right now.
San Clemente Island -- GOOD (3/5)
Consistent mid-range option for private boaters. Less fleet data this week as boats concentrated nearshore or offshore, but the island holds yellowtail and calico consistently at this point in the season.
Dana Point / Oceanside -- SLOW (2/5)
No pelagic action of note from the north end.
PRIVATE BOAT INTEL
The Warm Water Signal
The buoy recovery tells the week's story in one number: 63.5°F last Thursday, 66.4°F this morning. The same temperature that held the peak May YT bite is back in one week -- exactly as the pattern predicted.
For private boaters planning an offshore run, the YFT arrival complicates the search in a good way. The BFT corridor that's been producing all season is still active, but there's now a warmer water mass somewhere in that general zone holding YFT and skipjack. YFT tend to stack on temperature breaks at the warm edge -- look for water in the 67-69°F range if it's findable on SST charts. Flying fish, birds, kelp paddies, and floating debris are all worth checking when warmer water is around.
The overnight timing remains important. The waning moon is rising around midnight and transiting at dawn, which puts the brightest moon of the night in the early morning hours. Bait visibility is high from roughly 2-6 AM. Boats arriving on the grounds in that window should find active surface conditions before sunrise.
The Coronados are rebuilding. If you're running the islands in a private boat this weekend, the standard approach applies -- work North Island kelp and the Keyhole area, look for current lines and bait stacks. Water is back at temperature. Fish should be responding.
CONDITIONS
Forecast: Excellent all weekend. Eleven consecutive clean weekends.
Period | Wind | Seas | Swell Period | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Thursday | W 10 kt | 3-4 ft | 16s | 9/10 🟢 |
Friday | Variable <10 kt | 3-4 ft | 15s | 9/10 🟢 |
Saturday | Variable <10 kt | 3-4 ft | 15s | 9/10 🟢 |
Sunday | Variable <10 kt | 3-4 ft | 14s | 9/10 🟢 |
Monday | Variable <10 kt | 3 ft | 15s | 9/10 🟢 |
Source: NOAA PZZ750, San Mateo Pt to Mexican Border, out 30nm.
Barometric Pressure: Stable. No significant signal.
SST:
Coronado Islands: 65-66°F (recovering -- back in the productive band)
La Jolla / nearshore: 64-65°F
Offshore / Buoy 46086: 66.4°F (full recovery from 63.5°F low last week)
WHY IT WORKS THIS WEEKEND
Three converging factors point toward a strong weekend.
1. The thermal recovery is complete and the YT is rebuilding. Buoy 46086 is back to 66.4°F -- the exact temperature that held the peak May bite. The San Diego's June 1 return to the Coronados with 1.67 F/A is the reset signal. The full recovery into pre-correction YT numbers historically follows the New Moon (June 14), meaning this weekend is early in the rebuild but directionally positive. Each day this weekend should be better than the last.
2. The YFT arrival opens a new target. When a new pelagic species shows up in the zone, the first boats to find the right water get the best of it. Polaris Supreme got there first on Wednesday. The pattern on warm-water species like yellowfin: they concentrate on debris lines and temperature edges that shift daily. The private boat or multi-day trip that puts in the work to find the right surface water this weekend has a realistic shot at a rare early-season YFT trip.
3. The nearshore bite is at its best level of the year. WSB are showing consistently. Calico numbers remain 100-200 per half-day across multiple boats. Barracuda are still running. The nearshore fishery right now is stacked, and the improving Coronados water means some of those fish are starting to show at the islands too. This is the widest species spread of the entire season.
SOLUNAR TABLE
Weekend of June 6-7, 2026 -- San Diego
Waning Gibbous into Last Quarter (Saturday 71% / Sunday 62%). Next New Moon: June 14.
Day | Phase | Type | Window | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sat June 6 | 🌖 Waning Gibbous | Moonrise | 12:09 AM - 1:09 AM | Overnight |
Sat June 6 | 🌖 Waning Gibbous | Overhead | 4:34 AM - 6:34 AM | Dawn -- moon at peak as sun rises |
Sat June 6 | 🌖 Waning Gibbous | Moonset | 11:06 AM - 12:06 PM | Mid-morning |
Sat June 6 | 🌖 Waning Gibbous | Underfoot | 4:34 PM - 6:34 PM | Late afternoon |
Sun June 7 | 🌗 Last Quarter | Moonrise | 12:37 AM - 1:37 AM | Overnight |
Sun June 7 | 🌗 Last Quarter | Overhead | 5:17 AM - 7:17 AM | Dawn -- peaks with sunrise |
Sun June 7 | 🌗 Last Quarter | Moonset | 12:05 PM - 1:05 PM | Midday |
Sun June 7 | 🌗 Last Quarter | Underfoot | 5:17 PM - 7:17 PM | Evening |
The picks: Saturday dawn 4:34-6:34 AM and Sunday dawn 5:17-7:17 AM.
The waning moon has a specific setup that makes this weekend's dawn windows unusually clean. The moon rises around midnight each night, climbs through the dark hours, and reaches its overhead transit right at sunrise -- 5:34 AM Saturday, 6:17 AM Sunday. That means the moon is at its gravitational maximum at the exact moment the sun is rising. Two different feeding triggers converging at the same window: the solunar overhead Major and the natural dawn bite.
For sport boats departing the night before and arriving on the grounds at first light, both Saturday and Sunday put the solunar peak exactly when the boat arrives and the lines go in. Offshore boats should be set up and fishing hard from first light through 6:30-7:30 AM. The Coronados day boats should see an active early bite through 9-10 AM as the Major window tapers.
The late afternoon Underfoot Majors (4:34-6:34 PM Saturday, 5:17-7:17 PM Sunday) are worth fishing if you're still on the water. Evening YT bites at the Coronados often line up with the late-day tidal push, and this window adds a solunar layer to that.
BOAT PICKS
#1 -- Polaris Supreme (Seaforth Landing)
First to the yellowfin. They found warm water and a new species Wednesday -- and when a long-range boat finds productive warm water, they go back to it. The Polaris Supreme is the call for anyone chasing the YFT story this weekend. The 3-day format gives enough time to locate the right thermal patch and work it.
#2 -- San Diego (Seaforth Landing)
The Coronados recovery call. June 1 was the reset signal -- 25 yellowtail on 15 anglers, back at the islands after a week offshore. The San Diego has been the bellwether all season: first to confirm the collapse, first to confirm the recovery. This weekend the YT numbers should climb from the current 9-25 range as water continues to stabilize. The Saturday dawn solunar window (4:34-6:34 AM) is the moment to be on the grounds.
#3 -- New Seaforth Twilight (Seaforth Landing)
The white seabass call. 13 WSB on May 28 is the biggest single-trip WSB number of the season -- and it happened on a half-day twilight trip, not a dedicated overnight run. The Twilight format (typically departing late afternoon, fishing into dusk) puts anglers on the water during the evening Underfoot Major window (4:34-6:34 PM Saturday), which aligns exactly with the peak WSB feeding period at dusk. Calico and barracuda included.
THE DATA ANGLE
The recovery arrived on schedule.
Issue #11 called a 5-7 day correction window after the Full Moon. The Full Moon peaked Sunday May 31 at 1:45 AM. The San Diego returned to the Coronados on Monday June 1 -- Day 1 of the predicted window -- and posted 25 yellowtail on 15 anglers.
It's one data point, not proof of a law. But it's the third consecutive issue where the prediction framework called the direction of the bite in advance: Issue #07 flagged the Full Moon spike, Issue #09 flagged the post-moon correction, Issue #11 flagged the recovery window, and Issue #12 is watching the recovery happen on the predicted timeline. The buoy recovering to exactly 66.4°F -- the same temperature as the pre-correction peak -- on the same week the YT bite began resetting adds a thermal layer to what the lunar pattern was already suggesting.
The number to watch this weekend: does the San Diego hit 20+ yellowtail on Saturday or Sunday? If yes, the recovery is ahead of schedule and the pre-New Moon ramp toward the June 14 window is already building. If numbers stay in the single digits, the reset is slower than usual and the June 14 New Moon becomes the more important target.
FLEET COUNTS
May 28 -- June 3, 2026 -- Notable Trips
BLUEFIN / YELLOWFIN TUNA
May 28 -- Polaris Supreme: 25 BFT / 18 ang (1.39 F/A) + 5 YT
May 30 -- Pacific Voyager: 11 YT + 3 BFT / 16 ang
May 31 -- Polaris Supreme: 6 BFT + 5 YT / 24 ang (slower post-Full Moon)
Jun 3 -- Polaris Supreme: 38 YFT + 70 Skipjack + 8 YT / 24 ang -- YFT return after 3-week absence ⭐
YELLOWTAIL -- RECOVERY WATCH
May 28 -- San Diego: 11 YT / 23 ang (Full Day Offshore)
May 29 -- San Diego: 5 YT / 21 ang (Full Day Offshore)
May 30 -- Pacific Voyager: 11 YT / 16 ang
May 31 -- Tribute: 20 YT / 20 ang (1.0 F/A) -- first post-correction pop
Jun 1 -- San Diego: 25 YT / 15 ang (1.67 F/A) -- recovery signal ⭐
Jun 2 -- San Diego: 4 YT / 35 ang -- modest
Jun 3 -- San Diego: 9 YT / 24 ang + Grande: 0 YT at Coronados
WHITE SEABASS
May 28 -- New Seaforth Twilight: 13 WSB / 40 ang -- season best single-trip WSB ⭐
May 29 -- Sea Watch: 1 WSB / 15 ang
May 30 -- New Seaforth PM: 1 WSB + 3 YT / 53 ang; Sea Watch: 1 WSB
May 31 -- Dolphin: 1 WSB; Effishency: 1 WSB
Jun 2 -- Effishency: 5 WSB + 4 YT + 45 calico / 4 ang
Jun 3 -- Dolphin PM: 2 WSB / 30 ang
NEARSHORE
May 29 -- Sea Watch: 165 barracuda + 113 calico / 15 ang (11 barra/angler) ⭐
May 30 -- Pronto: 173 calico / 10 ang; Southern Cal: 170 calico / 38 ang
Jun 1 -- Southern Cal: 185 calico / 18 ang
Jun 2 -- Premier PM: 165 barracuda / 14 ang; Southern Cal: 181 calico / 25 ang
Jun 3 -- Premier PM: 261 calico / 37 ang ⭐; Southern Cal: 165 calico / 16 ang
Week Totals (May 28 -- June 3)
Yellowfin Tuna: 38 (Polaris Supreme, June 3) -- return after 3-week absence; season high was 160 on Apr 13
Skipjack Tuna: 70 (Polaris Supreme, June 3) -- warm water signal back in range
Bluefin Tuna: ~35 tracked -- significantly down from prior weeks, post-Full Moon moderation
Yellowtail: Recovery beginning -- June 1 was the reset signal
White Seabass: 26+ -- season-best week, 13 on New Seaforth Twilight May 28
Barracuda: 300+ -- Sea Watch posted 165 in one trip May 29
Calico Bass: 2,500+ -- consistently strong across all half-day boats
The Bite Index publishes every Thursday. Built on marine weather data, offshore buoy readings, fleet fish counts, and our own in-depth fishing data analysis.